The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers released their jointly-commissioned “2023 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast” during the 2023 Automotive Aftermarket Products Expo (AAPEX). The report shows that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) sales are projected to account for 9% of total U.S. light vehicles sales in 2023, growing to 35% by 2030.
The U.S. car market is projected to include approximately 10% BEVs by 2030, with that number expanding to account for nearly half of all vehicles by 2045 at 47%. As the complexity and cost of replacement components increase, the aftermarket parts market will continue to grow—meaning the average service shop with two to three bays is expected to need to invest $80,000 to $270,000 to remain competitive in the EV services market.
New this year, the 2023 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast report includes the addition of an expanded feature focused on the impact of EVs on automotive aftermarket service providers, the associations said.
“The study reveals that electrification and ADAS offer the greatest growth potential, growing at 18% and 8% CAGR as the car parc transitions to newer technologies,” said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “We have learned from the current crop of EVs that while sometimes different things break, they still break – and the aftermarket will be ready.”
“By the end of this decade, one in 10 new vehicles in the U.S. will be a BEV,” predicted Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. “The trend toward electric vehicle adoption among Americans continues to rise year over year, presenting the aftermarket industry with a clear view of its future: investment in the modernization of auto care businesses now will be essential to our survival in the decades to come.”
